TGCI 144: Gold/Silver, what happened since the pandemic started?

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Episode 144: Gold/Silver, what happened since the pandemic started?


In today’s show, Pancham interviews Dana Samuelson – President of the American Gold Exchange, Inc.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been continuously affecting our lives one way or another – like how the demand for precious metals has boomed over the last year. Even with his 41 years of service and being in the precious metals market, he has never seen this demand for gold and silver rise like ever before and he will unpack it all in today’s episode! 

Dana is back on the show to share the current state of the market and in the precious metal industry. This episode will surely enlighten you as he provides insights on inflation and how it will potentially affect the future.

Listen and enjoy the show!

Pancham Gupta
Dana Head BEST 2017 (1) (1) (1)
Dana Samuelson

Tune in to this show and enjoy!

Copy of Quote #00 - 1 Guest

Timestamped Shownotes:

  • 0:49 – Pancham welcomes Dana back to the show
  • 3:36 – Starting the America Gold Exchange and its 41 years of success
  • 5:23 – Why the precious metals industry is thriving in the pandemic
  • 10:39 – The aftereffect of high demand in gold and silver investing
  • 16:15 – How the economy is moving towards stagflation
  • 20:30 – On measuring wealth through productivity units than the dollars
  • 23:10 – How precious metals haven’t changed in value (and why wages contributes to inflation)
  • 25:31 – His forecast on what to expect in tax changes
  • 27:39 – On what to expect next in the precious metals market
  • 30:15 – Dana’s contact information

3 Key Points:

  1. The demand for precious metals has grown as this is where people invest whenever there is economic trouble – such as this pandemic. Negative real yields and their fear of the unknown are also other reasons why the demand has grown.
  2. Delayed physical delivery has occurred due to growing demand but limited production systems, and prioritizing in-demand metals.
  3. Inflation is expected to happen due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Get in Touch:

Read Full Transcript


Welcome to The Gold Collar Investor Podcast with your host, Pancham Gupta. This podcast is dedicated to helping the high paid professionals to break out of the Wall Street investments and create multiple income streams. Here’s your host, Pancham Gupta.

Hi, this is Tom Burns, author of Why Doctors Don’t Get Rich. You’re listening to The Gold Collar Investor Podcast with Pancham Gupta.


Pancham Gupta Thank you for joining me today and I really appreciate you being here with me. I hope you are enjoying the podcast and also learning at the same time. Nothing will make me happier if you use or implement one of the ideas or actions that you take after listening to the podcast. I have invited Dana Samuelson, back on the show today. He was on show #31 to discuss all about physical metals investing in physical gold and silver. And you know, since the pandemic started, there has a lot that has changed over the last one year or so. And I wanted to kind of get his thoughts on what happened, where we were, where we are today, and what’s his take on inflation and where we are going in the precious metals industry. So definitely tune in, check the show out. Hey, dana, welcome to the show. Welcome back to the show. I should say.


Dana Hi, Pancham. It’s great to see you. Great to be with you. 


Pancham Gupta  I saw this fun chatting with you. I can see a little bit of tan on your face. I can say that you’ve been back from this amazing town, believes and you were around some amazing people. I wish I were there. But I’m glad that you went.


Dana  Yeah, I just got back from the weeklong summit on sand with The Real Estate Radio Guys, their annual investor summit and it was fabulous. It was a really good event down in Ambergris Caye, Belize.  We got a little bit of sun, we spent a lot of time in classrooms during the day, but we were able to have some fun. It was really a great, great trip. So, I’m happy to be back. And I’ve got some new information regarding taxes, and LLCs that might change this year because of the Biden administration. So that will affect real estate investors, which I am one of, in addition to being a precious metals dealer, which is what I do ,yeah, you get it. So, I’ll probably set up an LLC this year for my personal real estate holdings because there may be some serious tax implications that kick in at the very end of the year.


Pancham Gupta  Yeah, I know I missed all of that and I want to pick your brain maybe we’ll do some of that during the show. So, before we get started, are you ready to fire up my listener break out of Wall Street investments?


Dana  Yes, I am. I really am. There’s a lot of exciting things happening right now with precious metals and I’m happy to share my information with your listeners. 


Pancham Gupta  Great. So, listener if you don’t know, Dana was in the on the podcast you know before on the show #31 and he talked about we discussed the history of gold how you can you know buy and invest in gold and silver, the precious metals in general, what’s the difference between an ETF and, and gold and silver, physical gold, and silver, all those things, anything you want to know about how to invest in physical gold and silver, we discussed it. So, if you want to check that out, go to and it will take you right there. So, dana, tell us, people have not heard from you before, and maybe they’re tuning in for the first time, give us a brief background on yourself.


Dana  Well, I’ve been in this, in the precious metals business, my entire professional career. I got my start in late 1980, which is now 41 years. It’s all I know how to do. I started American Gold Exchange, my own national mail order precious metals and vintage Coin Company in 1998. We’re in business now for our 23rd year, we have an impeccable national reputation for transparency, fair pricing, we say what we do, and we do what we say. I’m a past president of the professional numismatists Guild, which is the leading organization of rare coin dealers in the country. I helped to establish, I conceived of and established the anti-counterfeiting task force that our industry has now when I was PNG president in 2016, which interdicts shipments of spurious precious metals items coming in out of China primarily. And I, in this past year, I helped the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, the CFTC analyze some sales that are very bad, a precious metals dealer was doing out of California, taking advantage of elderly people and the case is still under litigation, but it was a big, big deal. It was the largest joint action between the CFTC and individual states in history because these people had done business with people in 37 different states, and most of these people lost money, serious money on their investments because they were overcharged, allegedly. 


Pancham Gupta  Wow. 


Dana  That’s big. 


Pancham Gupta  Yeah, it sounds like a big deal and your resume there is quite impressive. So, you know, what I want to focus on this show is that a lot has happened since the pandemic has started. And I know our last show kind of went live, just around the time when the pandemic started, we recorded it just before the pandemic, and then the pandemic happened. And now where we are, we are almost 16,18 months into the, you know, pandemic. So, there’s a lot has happened in the gold and silver and precious metal industry. So, can you bring everyone up to speed on what happened right after the pandemic was hit and since then, where we are now?


Dana  Yeah, well, it’ll take me a couple of minutes to summarize, but in essence, the economic closures that the pandemic forced on the country or happened to the country because of the pandemic created a very weak economy last year, obviously. We had 20 million jobs lost. Now we’ve got back about 12 million of those jobs are still about 8 million to go to get back to where we were pre pandemic. But this has left a gaping hole in the US economy that the federal government has tried to fill by printing money, creating money out of thin air for over $4 trillion. Now it could be up to 6 trillion depending on how you measure it. So, our debt has exploded, the Fed reacted by dropping the federal funds rate from two and a quarter percent to zero and precious metals have risen substantially last year on the back of this money printing and zero interest rates. At one point last August, there was a negative real yield on the 10 year treasury of about one percentage point, because the 10 year Treasury got down to 55 basis points. Inflation was 2%, one and a half to 2%. So, the negative real yield hit about 1%, one and a quarter percent, which is big. And gold peaked last August to $20, uh $2,070 an ounce silver got to $30 an ounce. Now they’ve corrected lower since then because Treasury yields have come back up, but they haven’t gotten back up to where they were pre pandemic, our debt is much, much higher. Precious metals demand over the last year has exploded as people have run to gold and silver as safe havens. In this time of economic trouble. We’re going through a same pattern that we went through following the 2008 financial crisis, although it’s happening much faster, because the closures and the reopening’s are happening faster. People are reacting faster. They you know, a lot of people never bought gold in 2008 or 2009 before. They learned during the last crisis, how to do it. And when this crisis hit, boy, we were run over like a freight train as an industry with demand. It was the fiercest wave of demand I’ve ever seen in 40 years of being in this markets last March and April. And then we had another wave hit us last July in August when the gold price went from 1800 to 2070. Finally reacting to some of the problems we’ve had. As I said as corrected back down, but we’ve had strained supplies and higher premiums than normal on most physical gold and silver products simply because they can’t immense around the world can’t make them fast enough to satisfy demand. Now we’re a year and a quarter later, things are finally settling back down for most products except the US golden Silver Eagles which are the most popular in this country because the US Mint in their infinite wisdom has decided to change designs in the middle of the calendar year, which no man ever does. And they’re doing this to add anti-counterfeiting design elements into the design of the coin, which is what we told them the PNG, the organization I was a past president of, we told them they should do this a couple of years ago, they’re finally getting around to it. The Royal Canadian Mint did it in 2016. But they’re changing designs in the middle of the year has caused them to have lower supplies an extreme and an extremely high demand environment. So, premiums for Gold and Silver Eagles are much higher than normal right now. The new designs won’t be released for another couple of weeks. We’re in near the end of June as we tape this, they’ll come out in the early July. And we’ll see if there’s enough supplies to meet demand which should help premiums come back down but as we speak right now, no gold, gold eagles are going for 8- 9% over the gold value we normally sell those for 4 and 5% over the gold value. Silver Eagles are going for $9 and $10 over the silver price. Normally they’re $4 and $5 over the silver price, where most other major mint products are well Canadian mint, golden silver, maple leaves are cheaper, Austrian gold and silver one ounce, philharmonic’s are cheaper. So, there’s alternative products we can turn to for better value and that’s what we’ve done. But it’s been a crazy wild ride these last 12 to 15 months,


Pancham Gupta  I can imagine, especially for you, especially in this business that you’re in. So let me ask you this, I remember during the right, a month or so later, after pandemic, the gold prices, and the silver prices started going up. And like you said in August  it peaked then it came down, but the physical delivery, if I wanted to buy silver, or gold, they were just not available, they were backordered or they were just not available, right? Is that true?


Dana  Yes. There’s a couple different reasons for it. As I mentioned a moment ago, demand has exploded. So going into COVID in 2018 and 2019, demand across the board in our industry nationally and around the world was lower than normal because we had a really good US economy. We had low unemployment. President Trump, a pro-business president was doing well, the stock market was setting new records, right, so there was no fear, and everything else was going pretty well. So, the mints were used to making you know, fewer than they normally might make gold and silver products because demand was lower, they’re not going to make extra every year just to have them on the shelf at the end of the year. They want to make enough to meet demand so, there were in a low demand environment that flipped like a switch to an extremely high demand environment. And that caught them off guard, number one. Number two, COVID impaired the man’s ability to produce further because of social distancing, these facilities are tight facilities where they got a lot of people in a small space, so they have to socially distance. I know the Royal Canadian men had a COVID episode, I think the US men had two of them where they actually had to shut down the facility, clean it out, make sure everybody was okay. So that impaired production when demand was high number two. Number three, they’re not making all of their normal product lines, they’re just focusing on the ones that are most popular. So, we don’t have the smaller sized, half ounce, quarter ounce and 10th ounce gold eagles available from the US Mint or any of the other mints, they’re pretty much making one ounce gold and silver pieces. So, the product lines have been diminished. And the real bottleneck, especially in silver, is the blank , the disk that the coin is actually struck on. Making the blanks takes a lot of time and effort. Now in gold, you know, one blank is $1800 worth of value. But in silver, to get that same $1800 worth of value, you’ve got to make 65 or 67 blanks. And that’s a lot more time and effort and it’s just harder to make silver. So, silver in particular has been delayed. Now we know delayed delivery. We know how much the mints can make in a week or a month. You know, the production schedules are pretty regular. So, if we knew that we could get from a US Mint or Royal Canadian Mint distributor gold and silver maple leaves for delivery in three weeks when we had none on the shelf right now, we could comfortably forward sell those for delivery in three or four weeks, which is the situation we got into that persisted this year for longer than I’ve seen that happen before. We were here in 2009, 2010 and 11. We’ve done this before, so we knew you know how to deal with it. But still yeah, there was a period of time when you couldn’t get your hands on physical metal without a delay. And then of course, we had the insurrection or the rest of, the attack on Congress January 6 of this year, we saw another wave of buying after that. And then the Wall Street Reddit kids came after us on February 1. It was like there’s like a hook coming through. You know the convenience store before hurricane wiping out all the milk and bread on the shelves all you know they got us again, they took all the silver off the market. We went back into delayed delivery situation when we were pretty stable at that point in time that we’ve now recovered from, but it’s been it’s been a very challenging period of time. We’re pretty much normal delivery on almost everything now.


Pancham Gupta  Got it. Got it. So pretty much you know, what you’re saying is the supply and demand kind of caused the peaked in the gold and silver crisis back in August. When the supply caught up, the prices also started going down in and there are many, many other factors too but is that correct way to say it?


Dana  Well, the precious metals underlying prices weren’t affected too much by supply and demand to a degree they were, but it was more negative real yields peaked last August. And also, the fear factor peaked last August, when the US was going through a whole big second wave of COVID. And there were no promise of vaccines on the horizon. You know, not nobody was sure how long it was going to last. Now, that really much that peaked last summer. And that’s when golden silver hit their highest levels, and Treasury yields, in particular hit their lowest levels since then, they’ve rebounded, as we slowly saw light out of the end of the tunnel for us getting to figure out a way to deal with COVID with vaccines, and with the ability to reopen up the economy, which is happening now. So, we’re seeing some more levelization of the pricing and the premiums right now, because we’re getting back to business as normal, but it’s not quite the same, because the US economy is red hot right now.


Pancham Gupta Yeah, absolutely. So, let’s talk about that now, like, you know, what do you think about what’s going to happen to inflation? I know you were around some big brains and, you know, what are they saying and what are your thoughts on inflation, given where we are today, and we’re recording it towards the end of June here?


Dana Well, I looked at our debt a year ago was about no, in 2019, our debt was 23 trillion, about this time, two years ago, today, it’s going to be it’s almost 29 trillion. So, our debt has exploded. Number one, people sat on the sidelines last year and didn’t spend money where they normally would spend it, so savings are upright?  So that gives people more money to spend, and what did they do? Well, they spent a lot on goods, for their houses. And just like the mints have been impacted by COVID, and their ability to produce so have the manufacturers around the world seeing the same problems, and shipping. So, we are seeing a rush to buy things with more money than is normally available and it is causing short term inflation to be really strong. Okay, inflation right now is almost 4% in the US double the fed’s target rate. The price for lumber, you know, a year ago was $475 for, you know, a contract of lumber on the futures exchange, you got all the way up to 1600, almost four times, it’s back down to about 900. Now, but it went way up and come way back down. So, the price of commodities has risen, most commodities are up by a bit too a lot from a year ago because of the surge of buying that’s going on. And this is very much inflationary, number one,. Number two, we’ve got monetary inflation with the expansion of our money supply by$4 to $6 trillion. That’s there’s monetary inflation. The Fed continues to say that we’re going through a phase that is transitory. Now, there actually is some merit to that, I must say, because we went through a similar spike, and then a big correction lower in 2008, 9,10. So they’re saying this is kind of a phase more than a real substantial pattern. And I see that to a degree. But when we have so much monetary inflation and artificially low interest rates to me and yields that are really much more negative than they’ve ever been because the inflation rate is rising. You know, this is a situation where I think we’re moving towards where Japan moved in 1990, towards stagflation, where going forward, we will have lower growth than normal because our debt is so high. And we’ll have moderate inflation, 4 or 5% annually. Now, we’re not gonna have 70s style inflation. But I think we could have higher inflation, probably double the inflation that we’ve had for the last five or six years, under 2%. You know, three and a half to 5% a year. Do you remember Doug Duncan, he is the chief economist for Fannie Mae. He’s one of the best forecasters in all of government. He was on the summit on sand. And he said that our inflation rate for 2021 would be 5%. But our inflation rate for 2022 would be three and a half percent. That doesn’t sound like much, but that’s double what it was in 2019. This is a hidden tax, the higher the inflation rate are the longer it persists. It’s just like another tax your money goes less and less every year as inflation eats away.


Pancham Gupta  Yeah, purchasing power. Yeah, right. 


Dana  So, the purchasing power diminishes and that’s why gold and silver have become favored in this environment because gold and silver like land and real estate are two of the things that do really well in a more inflationary environment and you’re hearing more and more big financial Titans like Paul Tudor Jones was interviewed by CNBC, two weeks ago. Ray Dalio, they’re talking about going moving investments towards things that hold their value well, in an inflationary times, and commodities are it , gold and silver are one of the best, lands another one of the best.


Pancham Gupta  Yeah, yeah, no, absolutely. The thing is that we are all attuned to measuring our wealth, and the things and the prices in terms of the dollar, right. And that takes away the fact that some of these things still have value, even if the market goes bust. So, before 2008, crash, one day before Lehman went bust, you still needed food, you still needed oil, you still needed certain things, to live your life. And one day after the crash, you still needed all of those things. And not that the supply of those things went away, they were still there. So, the cows and the oil and all these things have some intrinsic value. And that’s what you’re kind of referring to that the things with intrinsic value are going to hold in value, and they’re going to become more expensive during the inflationary period. And we have to keep holding on to those things. And then we have to start thinking, I mean, it’s very, very hard. Actually, I’ve, I’ve been thinking about this for last one week, that how to think in terms of productivity and the things as opposed to thinking in terms of the dollars,


Dana  right, right as Russell Gray, one of The Real Estate Radio, Guys principals, like the financial analysts, likes to say the dollar is just a unit of measure. Think of it as a unit of measure. But it’s a unit of measure that’s actually losing its ability to hold its value. So, the dollar will be dramatically diluted by this episode, and the ability of to purchase, those things will become lower and lower over time because of that,


Pancham Gupta  Yeah, this reminds me of that book by you know, Peter Schiff’s dad, Irwin Schiff, about inflation. And they talk about that example there, where the, you know, they measure everything with the height of the houses, the tax everything on based on the height of the houses, and they have the scale, which measures the house heights, and the king one day, replaces all the ruler, you know the scale with the new scale, which you know, creates all the houses now longer whatever before. So, you know, they have to pay more taxes. That’s exactly what’s happening. If you really think about the dollar is losing value, meaning that things are getting more expensive. But that’s the measure we have, and we are not measuring it in terms of the productivity unit. So, whatever you want to call it. So, gold really has stood the test of time for 5000 years where whatever you could buy 5000 years ago with one ounce of gold, you can pretty much buy the same thing with the one ounce of gold today, as opposed to US dollars.


Dana  Right. What most people look at, you know, think of it as the price of gold is going up, really the price of gold is staying the same, the value of the dollar is going down against it. Same thing with silver, same thing with oil, same thing with copper, same thing with lumber, the things we need, in our lives.  Food prices are going higher, but really the dollar is buying less of the same amount of food than it did. That’s what inflation is. And  the really sticky part about inflation is wages. So, you can see, you know, commodity prices surge and receive, like we’ve seen some examples of that in the last six months. But once people start offering higher wages or employers have to compete for workers, which is what they’re doing now, and they’re raising their offer, there’s a lot of incentives. Now, once you give someone a higher rate of pay, you can’t take it back easily. And that’s where inflation gets sticky and tends to make the ball start to really roll with some inertia. And we’re moving towards that phase of it right now. That’s where the rubber will meet the road. And we’ll know it’ll take a little while longer for this all to play out. But we’ll know better every three to six months how sticky inflation really is going to be.


Pancham Gupta  Yeah, absolutely. And that actually is kind of a scary thought. People are giving out money for people to come and interview. You know, so it is that, yeah. I read that article, I think Walmart or McDonald’s, they are giving out $100 to just come and interview for the position, you know, so it’s yeah, it is it is getting a little crazy. So yeah, just want to plug this show, show#50, people who don’t know or haven’t heard of the book that I was just talking about by Irwin Schiff, that book is out of print. But I read the entire book and the meaning of it in the, in the show #50 with my nine year old son who actually read it, and I interviewed him. So, if you want to listen to that, go to thegold  So, actually, so moving on, then you said that there are some tax changes coming, right? Is there anything coming for precious metals, any changes that you know of?


Dana  No, not in precious metals, you know, precious metals are gains are taxed as capital gains, I’m not sure if you know, the capital gains rate will change or not. But I can tell you that the new administration, the Biden administration needs to raise revenues, they need to raise taxes. So, we’re gonna try and raise taxes wherever they can, in as many ways as they can. One of the proposals have been floated is when real estate changes hands, no, it’s not going to be inherited anymore without a tax, they’ll have to realize the value of what it’s worth today, and the people that inherit, it will have to pay the tax difference from what it was valued at before. So, you know, generational wealth could be materially altered by this dramatically, 


Pancham Gupta  Massively, massively. 


Dana  Yeah, that’s a potential change. You know, one of the people on the summit on sand was Tom Wheelwright, who is an amazing, amazing accountant who stays up on top of all the tax law proposals before they come in. And you know, real estate investors sometimes will put their properties into an LLC to get some anonymity and protect themselves from lawsuits. And there may be a law change this year, but we may not know it’s effective until December 31. That has the same consequence. If you move property from a, from individual ownership to an LLC, you may be taxed on the value of difference there. So next year, so if you get it done this year, you might be able to sidestep that now, I’m not an accountant so please do not take my word for it. But I believe that’s what Tom said. So, he said, if you want to put properties into an LLC, you need to do it this year because next year, you might have a tax, taxable event, if you do that.


Pancham Gupta  Wow, that is a game changer. That’s gonna change some things. I didn’t know that. That is something that I had to think about. Cool. So, thank you, Dana. I think this is great. What would you say, I have one question regarding the change in the main putting anti-counterfeiting stuff, is that going to change the cost of minting and you know, is there going to be a permanent change in the premium because of that?


Dana  Well, we are going through some premium restructuring, simply because the demand has been so high, and there has been competition to create the same items. So, the men’s and the market will bear a little bit more now with higher precious metals levels. Generally, we price gold premiums in a percentage. So as a lower dollar value of gold, you know, 3% or 4% is lower. And you know, at 1500 that premium is lower in dollars than it would be at $1900 gold, you know, 3% the dollar value changes. So, percentages in gold are how we measure premiums, they might go up a little bit 1% net overall, just $20 an ounce right now basis gold a little under 1800. Silver, we’ve always priced in dollars. So, if the premium on the Silver Eagle was you know, 350 when silver was $18 and it’s 350 when silver’s $28 percentage wise that premium is dropped. So, the men’s got to recoup that we’re gonna see some higher premiums net in silver, I think when all is said and done, but percentage wise, it may not be that much different than it was when silver was under $18 to be honest with you, but the market will bear more now. A couple of the big online sellers, one of them in particular has been very aggressive in their pricing. We’ve normally struggled to stay competitive with them in more competitive times. And now it’s easy for us to undercut them because they’ve raised their prices a lot of premiums a lot overmounting we can comfortably ride their weight at a lower premium easily. So yeah, the market shifting a bit, but you know, last time we talked to gold was about 1600 you know, it’s about 1800 now and it got to over 2000. The last time we talked silver was about 19 bucks, 18 bucks, now it’s $26 and they got to 30. I think you know; gold should be over 2000 in this environment and silver ought to be over 35. I think they’re both undervalued right now relative to the debt we have, and the situation we’re in but I’m always a little ahead of the curve.


Pancham Gupta  That’s great, Dana and this is you know, so anyone who’s listening, they want to get in touch with you maybe by, get inspired by listening to you and when they missed buying physical gold or silver, how can they connect with you?


Dana  Well, our website is, amergold, our general email address is If someone wants to call us, our phone number is 800-613-9323. I’ve got four account managers that I’ve handpicked and trained myself, who have lots of experience. And we’re very good at helping people understand what their goals and needs are in this marketplace. We asked what the desires are, we’re consultative in our approach, we want to help you achieve your goal but with the right products for what you’re trying to accomplish, and not all are necessarily the right ones. And we’re extremely competitively priced so your money will go pretty far with us more than we’ll go with most other vendors, precious metals, or dealers or precious metals. So, I would encourage you to give us a call and talk to one of our account managers if you’re wanting to make a substantial purchase, we may help you make better decisions than you’ll be able to make on your own.


Pancham Gupta  I would completely watch for that. I personally got stuff from Dana and our friends and my friends. You know, I cannot think of anyone better than Dana when it comes to buying physical gold or silver. So, thank you, Dana for your time here.


Dana  Thank you Pancham,  it’s been wonderful to talk to you. I appreciate it.


Pancham Gupta  Thank you. I hope you got the update from Dana on what went on in the precious metal industry since the pandemic began and where we are today. You know, definitely if you ask me, my personal recommendation is always like have some part of your portfolio in precious metals. So, thank you for joining me today. I really appreciate you for tuning in. If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out at p@thegoldcollar, that’s p as in Paul This is Pancham, signing off. Until next time, take care.

Thank you for listening to The Gold Collar Investor Podcast. If you love what you’ve heard and you want more of Pancham Gupta, visit us at www.thegoldcollar and follow us on Facebook @thegoldcollarinvestor. The information on this podcast are opinions.  As always, please consult your own financial team before investing.

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